On April 2, 2025, on Liberation Day, President Trump announced the implementation of tariffs on all his trading partners, with the aim of reindustrializing America, rebalancing the trade balance, and wiping out the budget deficit. Quite a program! But the shockwave that followed went well beyond international trade, and the trade war first began on global stock markets, with corrections in major stock indices of nearly -10% in three days. The three-month moratorium, announced by Donald Trump on March 9 during a "good day for buying," helped stem the tide and ultimately even marked the beginning of a "bull market." While the 90-day deadline officially ends this Wednesday, nothing, or almost nothing, has changed. American exceptionalism persists, as evidenced by activity indicators in the United States (which are still showing signs of expansion) and the unemployment rate (which appears to have reached a new low of 4.1%, driven nonetheless by government jobs). Symbolically, US stock markets closed the (shortened) week at their all-time high on the eve of Independence Day. Also symbolic was the adoption of the controversial "Big Beautiful Bill" on Thursday, July 3, by the House of Representatives, and its enactment on July 4, aimed at both reducing taxes and government spending.
Two days before the epilogue of a three-month Liberation Day, the fate of the trade war seems to be cast. Indeed, despite the few agreements already concluded (United Kingdom, China, Vietnam) and others still being negotiated (Canada), many economic partners have still not reached an agreement with the United States, exposing themselves to the tariff wrath of Donald Trump. This was without counting the American Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent - who still plays the role of firefighter on duty - who finally, against all expectations, agreed with investors by declaring this Sunday that the countries that had not concluded any agreement would be notified today of the application of customs duties on August 1, thus postponing the moratorium by... 23 additional days. Donald Trump thus gives a very personal interpretation of Sun Tzu's Art of War, by resolving the difficulties he himself creates: "He who excels in resolving difficulties resolves them before they arise. He who excels in vanquishing his enemies triumphs before their threats materialize."
