In the first century BC, the Persian king Mithridates VI was known to regularly consume small doses of poison, thereby accustoming his body and developing a resistance to toxic substances. Mithridatization is the act of ingesting increasing doses of a toxic product in order to supposedly acquire insensitivity or resistance to it. In the 21st century, the toxic product can take many forms: tariffs, inflation, economic slowdown, geopolitical issues… However, financial markets seem immune to any form of downward pressure, like the S&P 500 companies, which generally posted satisfactory results in the second quarter despite the impact of tariffs, or the Nasdaq, which closed the week at an all-time high. The latest microdose of poison concerns the highly sensitive semiconductor segment, with Nvidia and AMD being forced to pay 15% of their revenue from chip sales in China to the US Treasury, representing an additional windfall for the government of around $7 billion based on 2025 revenue.
The gradual diffusion of the Trump (political) substance is felt daily, whether on the microeconomic front, with Apple CEO Tim Cook's commitment to invest an additional $100 billion in the United States to avoid the 100% surcharges, bringing the company's investment to $600 billion over four years, or, within economic institutions themselves, with the probable (temporary) appointment of Stephen Miran, the current Chairman of the White House Economic Council, as Governor of the Federal Reserve to be the spokesperson for a policy advocating a reduction in rates and the weakening of the dollar. However, this prescription is far from without side effects, as macroeconomic indicators are beginning to show signs of weakness, both in terms of employment, with the rise in continuing jobless claims and the contraction of the employment component of the ISM Services Index, and in terms of activity, with the ISM Services Index in a very slight expansion phase (50.1 for the month of July), while the price paid component exploded to 69.9, its highest level since October 2022. Inflation will be the focus of attention this week in the United States, as core inflation has reached a three-month low and appears to be rising again, and as the government increasingly questions the integrity of economic statistics.
The Trump substance continues to operate even on the geopolitical front after the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington with the President of the United States in the role of mediator, a role that further supports his candidacy for the Nobel Peace Prize according to the main protagonists, and which at the same time drives Russia out of the Caucasus, one of its main areas of influence. A few days before a strategic meeting in Alaska with Vladimir Putin to decide the fate of Ukraine, and without the European Union or Volodymyr Zelensky, this agreement takes on an almost symbolic aspect regarding Donald Trump's ability to resolve the most complex conflicts.